°²²©µç¾º

Ïà¹ØÐÂÎÅ
ÕþЭµÚʮһ½ìÌìÏÂίԱ»á¸±Ö÷ϯ»ÆÃϸ´ÔÚµÚÊ®ËĽ챱´ó°²²©µç¾ºÐÂÄêÂÛ̳ÉϵÄÖ´Ç
Ðû²¼Ê±¼ä£º2013Äê02ÔÂ18ÈÕ 00:00

×ðÖØµÄÀ÷ÒÔÄþÏÈÉú£¬£¬£¬£¬ £¬£¬×ðÖØµÄÁÐλÀ´±ö£¬£¬£¬£¬ £¬£¬ÏÈÉúÃÇ£¬£¬£¬£¬ £¬£¬Í¬ÑâÃÇ£º

ºÜÐË·ÜÄܹ»¼ÓÈë±±´ó°²²©µç¾ºÖÎÀíѧԺµÄÐÂÄêÂÛ̳¡£¡£¡£¡£¡£¹ØÓÚ½ñÄêÂÛ̳µÄÖ÷Ì⣬£¬£¬£¬ £¬£¬ÊʲÅÀî½ð»ª¸±Ö÷ϯÒѾ­×öÁ˺ܺõÄÑݽ²£¬£¬£¬£¬ £¬£¬ºóÃæÉÐÓÐÁ½Î»Ö÷½²¼Î±ö£¬£¬£¬£¬ £¬£¬Ò²½«¶ÔÕâ¸öÖ÷Ìâ¾ÙÐÐÉîÈëµÄÐðÊö¡£¡£¡£¡£¡£ÒÔÊÇ£¬£¬£¬£¬ £¬£¬ÎҾͽ²½²¡°²Á±ßÇò¡±µÄ»°Ìâ¡£¡£¡£¡£¡£

¹ú¼Òˢпª·ÅÒԺ󣬣¬£¬£¬ £¬£¬½øÈëÁËÒ»¸ö´´Á¢²Æ²úµÄʱ´ú¡£¡£¡£¡£¡£Ë¢Ð¿ª·ÅÈÃÒ»Çд´Á¢²Æ²úµÄԴȪ³ä·ÖÓ¿Èë¡£¡£¡£¡£¡£ÒÔÊÇ£¬£¬£¬£¬ £¬£¬ÕâЩÄêÀ´£¬£¬£¬£¬ £¬£¬ÎÒÃÇÉç»áµÄ²Æ²ú£¬£¬£¬£¬ £¬£¬¸öÈ˵IJƲú£¬£¬£¬£¬ £¬£¬¹ú¼ÒµÄ²Æ²ú£¬£¬£¬£¬ £¬£¬ÆóÒµµÄ²Æ²ú´ó·ù¶ÈÔöÌí¡£¡£¡£¡£¡£ÕâÖֲƲúµÄÔöÌí¼«´óµØ¸Ä±äÁËÎÒÃǹú¼ÒµÄÃæÄ¿£¬£¬£¬£¬ £¬£¬ÎÒÃǶ¼»áµÄÃæÄ¿£¬£¬£¬£¬ £¬£¬ÎÒÃÇÉç»áµÄÃæÄ¿ºÍÎÒÃǼÒÍ¥µÄÃæÄ¿¡£¡£¡£¡£¡£¿ÉÊÇ£¬£¬£¬£¬ £¬£¬Ëæ×ŲƲúµÄÖØ´óÔöÌí£¬£¬£¬£¬ £¬£¬·ºÆðÁ˲Ʋú·ÖÅä²»¾ùµÄÕ÷Ï󣬣¬£¬£¬ £¬£¬ÒÔÊÇ»ùÄáϵÊýÔ½À´Ô½¸ß£¬£¬£¬£¬ £¬£¬Æ¶¸»²î±ðÔ½À´Ô½´ó£¬£¬£¬£¬ £¬£¬ÈËÃǶԲƲúÕâ¸ö´ÊÒѾ­×îÏÈÓÐÁ˲î±ðµÄÃ÷È·¡£¡£¡£¡£¡£ÄÇô£¬£¬£¬£¬ £¬£¬ÎÒÏë¾ÍÕâ¸öÎÊÌâ̸µãÎҵĿ´·¨¡£¡£¡£¡£¡£

²Æ²ú¶ÔÒ»°ãÈËÀ´½²¶¼ÊÇÓÃÔÚÉúÑÄ£¬£¬£¬£¬ £¬£¬»òÕßÊÇÑøÀÏ£¬£¬£¬£¬ £¬£¬»òÕßÊÇÏûºÄ¡£¡£¡£¡£¡£²Æ²ú¹ØÓÚÕû¸öÉç»áÀ´½²£¬£¬£¬£¬ £¬£¬ÓÈÆäÊǹØÓÚÆóÒµ¡¢ÆóÒµ¼ÒÀ´½²£¬£¬£¬£¬ £¬£¬Ëü¾Í²»ÊÇÇ®µÄÊÂÇé¡£¡£¡£¡£¡£Ðí¶àÆóÒµ¼Ò˵£¬£¬£¬£¬ £¬£¬ÄãÃǽ²Ç®¼¸¶à£¬£¬£¬£¬ £¬£¬ÎÒûÓиÐÊܵ½ÎÒµÄÇ®Óм¸¶à£¬£¬£¬£¬ £¬£¬ÏÖʵÉÏËû¿ÉÄÜÒѾ­Óм¸°ÙÒÚÁË£¬£¬£¬£¬ £¬£¬¿ÉÊÇȴûÓиÐÊÜ£¬£¬£¬£¬ £¬£¬»¹ÒÔΪ×ʽ𲻷󡣡£¡£¡£¡£ÄÇô£¬£¬£¬£¬ £¬£¬Ç®ÔÚÕâЩÈ˵ÄÊÖÀï²»ÊDzƲú£¬£¬£¬£¬ £¬£¬Ò²²»ÊÇÏûºÄÆ·£¬£¬£¬£¬ £¬£¬ËüÊÇʲô£¿ £¿£¿ËüÊÇÉú²úÒªËØ£¬£¬£¬£¬ £¬£¬¾ÍÊÇÎÒÃÇÉç»áÉú²úÁ¦Éú³¤ÖÐÒ»ÖÖÖ÷ÒªÒªËØ¡£¡£¡£¡£¡£ÒÔÊÇ£¬£¬£¬£¬ £¬£¬²Æ²úÔÚÕâЩÈ˵ÄÊÖÖд´Á¢ÁËGDP£¬£¬£¬£¬ £¬£¬´´Á¢ÁË˰ÊÕ£¬£¬£¬£¬ £¬£¬Ò²´´Á¢Á˾ÍÒµ¡£¡£¡£¡£¡£ÎÒ½²Õâ¸ö»°µÄÒâ˼£¬£¬£¬£¬ £¬£¬¾ÍÊÇÎÒÃÇÓ¦¸Ã׼ȷµØÊ÷Á¢Ò»ÖֲƲú¹Û£¬£¬£¬£¬ £¬£¬ÎÒÃÇÒ»·½ÃæÒª¿´µ½²Æ²ú·ÖÅä²»¹«Ëù´øÀ´µÄÉç»áµÄ²»Âú£¬£¬£¬£¬ £¬£¬Í¬Ê±ÎÒÃÇÓ¦¸ÃÖ§³Ö°ÑÄÇЩ²Æ²úÓÃÓÚÉú²ú£¬£¬£¬£¬ £¬£¬ÓÃÓÚÔöÌí¾ÍÒµµÄÆóÒµºÍÆóÒµ¼Ò¡£¡£¡£¡£¡£ÕâÑùµÄ²Æ²ú»ýÀÛÓ¦¸Ã¸øÓèÖ§³Ö¡£¡£¡£¡£¡£

ǰ²»¾ÃÎÒ¿´µ½¹¤ÉÌ×ֵܾÄÒ»¸öͳ¼Æ¡£¡£¡£¡£¡£ÏÖÔÚ˽ӪÆóÒµÒѾ­Áè¼Ý1000Íò¼Ò£¬£¬£¬£¬ £¬£¬Ë½ÓªÆóÒµ¼ÒÁè¼Ý1500Íò¡£¡£¡£¡£¡£¿ÉÊÇ£¬£¬£¬£¬ £¬£¬ÎÒËãÁËһϣ¬£¬£¬£¬ £¬£¬Æ½¾ùÒ»¸ö˽ӪÆóÒµ¼ÒµÄ×¢²á×ʽðÒ²²»¹ý¾Í200¶àÍò¡£¡£¡£¡£¡£ÈôÊǰÑÕâ200¶àÍòÄÃÈ¥ÂòÒ»Ì×ÎÝ×Ó£¬£¬£¬£¬ £¬£¬»òÕßÄÃÈ¥ÏûºÄ£¬£¬£¬£¬ £¬£¬ÎÒÃǾÍûÓÐÕâÑùµÄÒ»¸öÃñÓª¾­¼Ã£¬£¬£¬£¬ £¬£¬ÎÒÃǾÍûÓÐÕâÑùµÄ˰Êպ;ÍÒµ¡£¡£¡£¡£¡£ÒÔÊÇ£¬£¬£¬£¬ £¬£¬²Æ²ú¼¯¾ÛÔÚÕâÑùÒ»ÅúÆóÒµÖУ¬£¬£¬£¬ £¬£¬ºÍ²Æ²úȺ¼¯ÔÚ²»¿É¹»³ÉΪÉú²úÁ¦µÄµØ·½£¬£¬£¬£¬ £¬£¬Ð§¹ûÊÇÍêÈ«·×ÆçÑùµÄ¡£¡£¡£¡£¡£ÈôÊÇÊÇ1000¶àÍòÈ˰ÑÇ®´æµ½ÒøÐУ¬£¬£¬£¬ £¬£¬¹ú¼Ò¾ÍƶÀ§ÁË¡£¡£¡£¡£¡£ÒÔÊÇ£¬£¬£¬£¬ £¬£¬ÎÒÃÇÓ¦¸ÃÃãÀøÄÇЩÄܹ»°Ñ²Æ²úÄð³ÉÉú²úÁ¦µÄÆóÒµ¼Ò¡£¡£¡£¡£¡£ËäÈ»£¬£¬£¬£¬ £¬£¬ÏÖÔÚÎÒ¸ÐÊܵ½Ðí¶àÆóÒµ¼Ò½ÏÁ¿Ãì㣬£¬£¬£¬ £¬£¬¡°Í¨Ë×ÀÏÀèÃñ×ÜÊÇ˵ÎҵIJƲúÓм¸Ê®ÒÚ£¬£¬£¬£¬ £¬£¬¼¸°ÙÒÚ£¬£¬£¬£¬ £¬£¬ÏÖʵÉÏÎÒûÓÐʱ¼äҲûÓо«ÉñÀ´ÏíÊÜÕâЩ²Æ²ú¶ÔÎÒ´øÀ´µÄÀûÒæ£»£»£»£» £»£»·´µ¹ÊÇÓÉÓÚÎ񵀮óÒµÔ½×öÔ½´ó£¬£¬£¬£¬ £¬£¬Éç»áÔðÈÎÔ½À´Ô½¶à£¬£¬£¬£¬ £¬£¬Ô±¹¤Ô½À´Ô½¶à£¬£¬£¬£¬ £¬£¬Ñ¹Á¦Ô½À´Ô½´ó£¬£¬£¬£¬ £¬£¬¶øÉç»áÉÏȴ˵ÊÇÎÒÊ׸»£¬£¬£¬£¬ £¬£¬¶þ¸»Ê²Ã´µÄ¡±¡£¡£¡£¡£¡£¿´´ý²Æ²úÎÒÒÔΪÉç»áÉÏÓ¦¸ÃÓÐÒ»¸ö׼ȷµÄÆÀ¼Û¡£¡£¡£¡£¡£

ÎÒÃǽ²Éç»áÔðÈΣ¬£¬£¬£¬ £¬£¬Éç»áÔðÈÎÊÇÿ¸öÈ˵Ä£¬£¬£¬£¬ £¬£¬Ã¿¸öÈ˶¼Òª´Ó×ÔÉí×öÆð£¬£¬£¬£¬ £¬£¬ÎÊÎÊ×Ô¼ºµÄÉç»áÔðÈξ¡µ½Ã»ÓС£¡£¡£¡£¡£Ê®°Ë´óÌá³öÒ»¸öºÜÊÇÐÛΰµÄÄ¿µÄ£¬£¬£¬£¬ £¬£¬2020ÄêÖÜÈ«½¨³ÉС¿µÉç»á¡£¡£¡£¡£¡£13ÒÚÉú³ÝµÄÖйú£¬£¬£¬£¬ £¬£¬ÖÜÈ«½¨³ÉС¿µÉç»á¶ÔÈ«ÌìÏÂÒâÒåÊǺÜÊÇÖØ´óµÄ¡£¡£¡£¡£¡£¿ÉÊÇ£¬£¬£¬£¬ £¬£¬ÒªÊµÏÖÕâ¸öÄ¿µÄ£¬£¬£¬£¬ £¬£¬ÎÒÃÇÏÖÔÚ×öºÃ×¼±¸ÁËÂ𣿠£¿£¿ÎÒÒÔΪÉç»áÉÏ¿ÉÄÜ»¹Ã»ÓÐ×öºÃ×¼±¸¡£¡£¡£¡£¡£¸÷È˶¼Ï£Íû¸ÄÉÆÉúÑÄÌõ¼þ£¬£¬£¬£¬ £¬£¬¶¼Ï£ÍûÕÇÈËΪ£¬£¬£¬£¬ £¬£¬¶¼Ï£Íû»îµÄ¸üÓä¿ìһЩ£¬£¬£¬£¬ £¬£¬¸üÇáËÉһЩ£¬£¬£¬£¬ £¬£¬µ«ÈôÊÇÎÒÃǶªµôÖйúÈ˵ÄÇÚÀÍ¡¢ÇÚ¼ó¡¢ÍŽᡢ³ÏÐÅ£¬£¬£¬£¬ £¬£¬ÈôÊÇûÓÐÕâЩ»ù´¡£¬£¬£¬£¬ £¬£¬2020ÄêÄܹ»½¨Óñ³ÉÃæÐ¡¿µÉç»áÂ𣿠£¿£¿ÎÒÊÇ´òÎʺŵÄ¡£¡£¡£¡£¡£

ÒÔÊÇ£¬£¬£¬£¬ £¬£¬ÔÚÕâЩÎÊÌâÉÏ£¬£¬£¬£¬ £¬£¬¿ÉÄܸúÉç»áÔðÈεÄÖ÷Ìâ²»Íêȫմ±ß£¬£¬£¬£¬ £¬£¬¿ÉÊÇÎÒÒÔΪÕâÊÇÒ»¸ö»ù´¡¡£¡£¡£¡£¡£Ò»¸öƶÇîµÄÉç»á»ù´¡Ì¸²»ÉÏʲôÉç»áÔðÈΡ£¡£¡£¡£¡£µ±ËüûÓгÔ£¬£¬£¬£¬ £¬£¬Ã»Óд©£¬£¬£¬£¬ £¬£¬²»µ«ÊÇÉç»áÔðÈΣ¬£¬£¬£¬ £¬£¬¶øÊÇÉç»áÖÈÐò¶¼Ã»ÓÐÁË¡£¡£¡£¡£¡£ÒÔÊÇÖ»ÓÐÔÚÉç»áһֱǰ½ø£¬£¬£¬£¬ £¬£¬Ò»Ö±Éú³¤£¬£¬£¬£¬ £¬£¬Éç»á²Æ²úÒ»Ö±ÔöÌíµÄÌõ¼þÏ£¬£¬£¬£¬ £¬£¬°²²©µç¾ºÉç»áÔðÈβŻªÖð²½µÄÔöÇ¿¡£¡£¡£¡£¡£¼ÛÖµ¹²ÏíµÄÀíÄîÓ¦¸Ãͨ¹ýÅäºÏµÄÀͶ¯À´»ñµÃ£¬£¬£¬£¬ £¬£¬¶ø²»ÊÇ¿¿±ðÈËÀ´Ìá¸ß¼ÛÖµ£¬£¬£¬£¬ £¬£¬´´Á¢²Æ²ú£¬£¬£¬£¬ £¬£¬Ã¿Ò»¸öÈ˶¼ÒªÎª´´Á¢²Æ²ú£¬£¬£¬£¬ £¬£¬¶¼ÒªÎª¾¡Ò»·ÝÉç»áÔðÈÎÆð¾¢¡£¡£¡£¡£¡£

ÎҾͽ²ÕâÒ»µãÒâ¼û£¬£¬£¬£¬ £¬£¬×£Ô¸±±´ó°²²©µç¾ºµÄÐÂÄêÂÛ̳Խ°ìÔ½ºÃ£¬£¬£¬£¬ £¬£¬Ð»Ð»£¡

£¨Æ¾Ö¤ÏÖ³¡ËټǸåÕûÀí£¬£¬£¬£¬ £¬£¬Î´¾­×Ô¼ºÈ·ÈÏ£©

°²²©µç¾º  °æÈ¨ËùÓР ¾©ICP±¸05065075ºÅ-1 ÁªÏµ°²²©µç¾º   ÕÐÆ¸ÐÅÏ¢ 
© 2011  Guanghua School of Management  Peking University
¡¾ÍøÕ¾µØÍ¼¡¿
ÕþЭµÚʮһ½ìÌìÏÂίԱ»á¸±Ö÷ϯ»ÆÃϸ´ÔÚµÚÊ®ËĽ챱´ó°²²©µ